by Congressman Lou Frey, Jr.
Over the years, I have had the opportunity to be involved in many discussions about who should be the Republican vice presidential candidate. Political strategists will tell you that there are only a few things to consider.
The first is someone who will carry their home state. The second is someone whose home state is an important swing state, such as Florida, Ohio, Virginia, etc. The third is someone who will not make any mistakes and give the opponent a chance to ridicule the nominee. The final need is someone who could attract niche voters to the presidential campaign. By niche voters I mean someone who has been in the military, is female, is Hispanic, is African-American, etc.
In my opinion, the only time a vice presidential candidate made a big difference was when I was in law school in 1960 and watched with amazement Senator Lyndon B. Johnson, Majority Leader of the U.S. Senate, agree to be the running mate for Senator John F. Kennedy. No one is quite sure exactly what went on or why, but in reading history it is obvious that Speaker of the House Sam Rayburn (D-TX) played a big part in this decision, which proved to be an incredibly smart decision.
Let’s just throw out a few names and see how these questions would work. For over a year I have been talking about the fact that Senator Rob Portman is someone who should be seriously considered for the number two spot. He is from a major swing state, Ohio. He ran statewide only two years ago and won. He has an incredibly strong background, being elected to the Congress, serving in the leadership of the House, serving as the U.S. Trade Representative and also serving as head of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). He was on the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction. He has not made any mistakes so far and he knows what he is doing. He doesn’t have a particular niche he fills, except competence.
In my home state of Florida you hear the name of Senator Marco Rubio more and more. Just recently former Governor Jeb Bush indicated that if asked he wouldn’t mind being vice president, but on the other hand thought that Rubio would be a better selection. Many people favor Bush because he is fluent in Spanish and his wife is Mexican-American, which could help in California and other Southwest states. Rubio was elected only two years ago as a U.S. Senator. Rubio is from a key, large state that must be carried to win the election. So far he’s only had a couple minor missteps and is someone who has a bright future in the U.S. Senate. The question about Rubio is does his Hispanic roots help in Florida and/or in other states where there is a large Hispanic population such as California. Romney is giving him national exposure with special emphasis on the Hispanic vote. It may be that Rubio only polls well in Florida. Sophisticated polling is going on to see how Rubio does nationally. The people making the decision should have the answer in 45 days or less.
Another name being mentioned is Bob McDonnell, Governor of Virginia. Virginia is a key state, another swing state, but does not have as many votes as Florida or Ohio. The Governor, who was elected as Virginia’s attorney general in 2005, is relatively unknown with this being his first chance to shine outside his home state. He won the governor’s race with over 58% of the vote. He is an intelligent individual who is a good campaigner but suffers from the same problem that Senator Portman does, he doesn’t represent a particular niche which could bring in some additional votes nationally.
When names pop up just look at the four criteria raised which may give you an idea of who is going to get the vice presidential nomination. The Republicans would like very much to have a woman on the ticket. I know that was something the McCain Campaign was very interested in and did a lot of polling of various female nominees before Sarah Palin was put on the ticket. I do not see any female being on the ticket this year.
Most vice presidential selections, whether Republican or Democrat, in the past have turned out not to be a key element to winning or losing the presidential race. Contrary to rumors, I doubt that President Obama is going to back off from Vice President Biden.
Television:
Bright House Networks | Central Florida News 13 Political Connections — Sundays at 1:30 p.m. and 7:30 p.m. with Ybeth Bruzual
WKMG Local 6 Flashpoint with Lauren Rowe
WOFL Channel 35 FOX News
Links to video programs:
The Lou Frey Institute of Politics and Government
2012 Spring Symposium: The Federal Budget: An Unsolvable Crisis?
http://loufreyinstitute.org/symposia/2012/spring/122
2011 Fall Symposium: Campaign 2012: New Rules of the Road?
http://loufreyinstitute.org/symposia/2011/fall
The Civics Connection: A Conversation with Congress
http://loufreyinstitute.org/civicsconnection/conversations
Radio:
Mark Simpson with Lou Frey and Dick Batchelor tape INTERSECTION 30-minute radio show on WMFE-FM 90.7. The show is recorded usually on the 1st Monday of the month, it then runs on the 1st Tuesday of the month at 9:30 a.m. and the 1st Wednesday of the month at 6:30 p.m. and the 1st Saturday of the month at 7:30 a.m.
Frey appears on the BUD HEDINGER SHOW WFLA-AM 540 at 8:05 a.m. every Monday
Frey appears on the FLORIDA RADIO NETWORK at various times depending on what is Breaking News
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